Mario Sports Mix item probability distributions

The following tables are used in Mario Sports Mix to determine the probability of receiving a certain item when stepping on a ? Panel. Item probabilities are split across several tables, which table is used is based on three factors: Which sport is played, whether the character walking across the ? Panel is holding the ball/puck or not and finally which team is in the lead and by how much.

Calculations

In every match the game loads five seperate lists of probabilities, each list consists of 16 items each, including the coin. Only 7 items are ever used in the game during regular matches, the remaining 9 unused items always have a value of 0. Which list gets used is determined by which team has a lead; for Basketball, Volleyball and Hockey each team's points is used while for Dodgeball each team has their member's HP added together for a team's total HP which is then used to determine a lead. Sets won or lost play no role in the calculation and neither does the stage, difficulty or any match settings; because of that table 1 & 5 are impossible to actually get in Volleyball & Dodgeball if a 10-point or 50HP match is played respectively.

The following is when each respective list is used:

	Basketball / Volleyball / Hockey	Dodgeball
List 1	Ahead by 10 points or more	Ahead by 200 total HP or more
List 2	Ahead by 5-9 points	Ahead by 100-199 total HP
List 3	Default	Default
List 4	Behind by 5-9 points	Behind by 100-199 total HP
List 5	Behind by 10 points or more	Behind by 200 total HP or more

Basketball & Hockey

Both sports use the exact same values.

When not holding the ball/puck

List 1	40	20	10	10	10		10
List 2
List 3	40	15	13	11	10		11
List 4	40	12	13	10	12	3	10
List 5	40	10	13	10	12	5	10

When holding the ball/puck

List 1	60	10	8	8	6		8
List 2
List 3	80	5	5	4	4		4
List 4	80	4	4	3	3	3	3
List 5	80	3	3	3	3	5	3

Volleyball

Only one table is used for Volleyball, a second table for holding a ball is present, although it contains the same values as the secondary Basketball/Hockey table and is never actually used in-game.

List 1	30	20	15	15	10		10
List 2
List 3	50	10	10	10	10		10
List 4	50	7	10	10	10	3	10
List 5	50	5	10	10	10	5	10

Dodgeball

When not holding the ball

List 1	50	15	10	10	5		10
List 2
List 3	70	10	5	5	5		5
List 4	70	7	5	5	5	3	5
List 5	70	5	5	5	5	5	5

When holding the ball

List 1		25	25	20	10		20
List 2
List 3
List 4		25	20	20	15		20
List 5		20	20	20	20		20

Behemoth Fight

The item probabilities are calculated differently during a Behemoth fight in order to allow for special exceptions in the form of meteors and coins. The following is a list of probabilities:

	No item held		Any Item held
No meteor in play	17.5% 17.5% 65%		100%
Meteor held by character	100%		100%
Meteor held by another character / Meteor being passed	50% 50%		50% 50%

Internally most of the above is calculated outside of the regular item probability tables, instead the table is only used in practice when an item has to be given out. If a meteor isn't in play and no item is held there is a 65% chance for a meteor and a 35% chance for any item according to the table. Similarly, when a meteor is held by another character or being passed then an item is also given out according to the table. In all other cases the table is completely irrelevant.

Below is the item probability table for a Behemoth boss fight, the game only ever uses the third list, meaning the star is completely inaccessible in normal gameplay despite being in the table. A second table is present but is merely a duplicate of the first one and is also never actually accessed in the game.

List 1 (unused)		50			50
List 2 (unused)
List 3
List 4 (unused)		50			50	3
List 5 (unused)		50			50	5