Mario Kart Tour item probability distributions

The following item probability distributions are used by Mario Kart Tour to determine the probability of obtaining a certain item when an Item Box is opened. Text directly derived from in-game data is reported in italics.

In this game the tables contain two probabilities, that are here referred to with abbreviations:

P: mProbability, the probability of obtaining a certain item from the item box.
A: mAdditionalProbabily, an additional probability, likely the probability increase due to the use of a Normal glider with the corresponding item skill.

General rules[edit]

This section needs Mario Kart improvement. Specifically:

Cleaner formulation, displaying the actual in-game data

Requested improvements must be clear, pertinent, and well-formed. Please refrain from adding bullet points such as "Add more information" or "Write the rest of the article".

During races, the item probability distribution is chosen depending on the current position in the ranking at the moment the Item Box is opened.

Whether or not the Item Box will activate Frenzy mode will be determined first. If the player has Auto Item off, then it is not possible for them to activate Frenzy mode if a Spiny Shell, a Bullet Bill, Lightning, a Mega Mushroom, a Coin Box, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon or a Bob-omb Cannon are being hold.

The following restrictions hold for the non-Frenzy item distributions:

The player can not hold three of the same items.
A Mega Mushroom, a Bullet Bill, a Super Horn, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon, a Coin Box and a Bob-omb Cannon cannot appear if the player already holds one.
A Spiny Shell cannot be obtained before 30 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained.
A Blooper cannot appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained (this does not hold for Bloopers that are part of a Lucky Seven).
A Bullet Bill cannot be obtained before 35 seconds have elapsed and cannot appear for 10 seconds after one has been obtained.
Lightning cannot be obtained before 20 seconds have elapsed and cannot appear for 60 seconds after one has been obtained.

If items cannot be obtained according to these restrictions, the corresponding probability will be set to zero.

Single player races (ItemSlotTable)[edit]

The following are the single player item probabilities in the 2021 Autumn Tour.^[1]

Non-Frenzy (mProbTable)[edit]

The following tables are for situations where Frenzy mode is not activated. There are four tables divided into two groups, whose purpose is currently unknown, although it is expected that the first table contains the probability of the first opened Item Box, while the other tables contain the probability of the following Item Boxes.

Human players[edit]

The item slots rolled by the players have three possible strengths, strength 2 is always used, while strength 1 is enabled with two items and strength 0 is enabled with three items. Each slot can only have a strength not shared with the other slots. Players receive items based on placement as opposed to distance from the frontrunner like in Mario Kart 8 and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

Strength 0[edit]

Position	1st		2nd		3rd		4th		5th		6th		7th		8th
Position	P	A	P	A	P	A	P	A	P	A	P	A	P	A	P	A
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Banana	10	0	15	0	35	0	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Green Shell	5	0	20	0	20	0	25	0	50	0	35	0	0	0	0	0
Red Shell	0	0	20	0	5	0	5	0	15	0	10	0	0	0	0	0
Mushroom	0	0	5	0	5	0	15	0	25	0	30	0	85	0	95	0
Bob-omb	0	0	0	0	5	0	10	0	10	0	20	0	0	0	0	0
Blooper	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Spiny Shell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super Star	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bullet Bill	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lightning	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super Bell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fire Flower	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Coin	85	0	40	0	30	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ice Flower	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dash Ring	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bubble	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Small Bullet Bill	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lucky Seven	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bowser's Shell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Giant Banana	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	5	0	30	0	20	0	20	0	20	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
Yoshi's Egg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Birdo's Egg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	1	0	9	0	13	0	8	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	1	0	9	0	13	0	8	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	1	0	9	0	13	0	8	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Boomerang Flower	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Giga Bob-omb	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super Horn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	5	0	35	0	50	0	30	0	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	5	0	35	0	50	0	30	0	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	5	0	35	0	50	0	30	0	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super Leaf	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Triple Mushrooms	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Heart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Hammer	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Triple Bananas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Triple Green Shells	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Double Bob-ombs	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bob-omb Cannon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Banana Barrels	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mega Mushroom	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	15	0	5	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mushroom Cannon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Coin Box	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Giant Banana+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Triple Bananas+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Giga Bob-omb+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Double Bob-ombs+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Boomerang Flower+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Birdo's Egg+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super Bell+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fire Flower+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Hammer+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Heart+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ice Flower+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Triple Mushrooms+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bowser's Shell+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Triple Green Shells+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Banana Barrels+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bob-omb Cannon+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Coin Box+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mushroom Cannon+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lucky Seven+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dash Ring+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bubble+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super Leaf+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Yoshi's Egg+	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Strength 1[edit]

Position	1st		2nd		3rd		4th		5th		6th		7th		8th
Position	P	A	P	A	P	A	P	A	P	A	P	A	P	A	P	A
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Banana	30	10	15	5	30	15	28	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Green Shell	15	2	20	10	25	15	22	5	35	2	20	0	0	0	0	0
Red Shell	0	0	30	10	8	2	10	5	20	8	15	0	0	0	0	0
Mushroom	0	0	10	5	15	10	25	10	25	5	45	0	85	0	98	0
Bob-omb	0	0	0	0	7	8	15	9	15	9	10	0	0	0	0	0
Blooper	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Spiny Shell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super Star	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bullet Bill	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lightning	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super Bell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fire Flower	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Coin	55	15	25	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ice Flower	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dash Ring	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bubble	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Small Bullet Bill	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lucky Seven	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bowser's Shell	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Giant Banana	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	5	0	30	0	20	0	20	0	20	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
Yoshi's Egg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Birdo's Egg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	9	0	13	0	8	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	9	0	13	0	8	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	9	0	13	0	8	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Boomerang Flower	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Giga Bob-omb	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super Horn	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	35	0	50	0	30	0	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	35	0	50	0	30	0	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	35	0	50	0	30	0	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super Leaf	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Triple Mushrooms	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	0	20	0	0
Heart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Hammer	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Triple Bananas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

[1]