Mario Kart Tour item probability distributions

The following item probability distributions are used by Mario Kart Tour to determine the probability of obtaining a certain item when an Item Box is opened. Text directly derived from in-game data is reported in italics.

In this game the tables contain two probabilities, that are here referred to with abbreviations:


 * P: mProbability, the probability of obtaining a certain item from the item box.
 * A: mAdditionalProbabily, an additional probability, likely the probability increase due to the use of a Normal glider with the corresponding item skill.

General rules
During races, the item probability distribution is chosen depending on the current position in the ranking at the moment the Item Box is opened.

Whether or not the Item Box will activate Frenzy mode will be determined first. If the player has Auto Item off, then it is not possible for them to activate Frenzy mode if a Spiny Shell, a Bullet Bill, Lightning, a Mega Mushroom, a Coin Box, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon or a Bob-omb Cannon are being hold.

The following restrictions hold for the non-Frenzy item distributions:
 * The player can not hold three of the same items.
 * A Mega Mushroom, a Bullet Bill, a Super Horn, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon, a Coin Box and a Bob-omb Cannon cannot appear if the player already holds one.
 * A Spiny Shell cannot be obtained before 30 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained.
 * A Blooper cannot appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained (this does not hold for Bloopers that are part of a Lucky Seven).
 * A Bullet Bill cannot be obtained before 35 seconds have elapsed and cannot appear for 10 seconds after one has been obtained.
 * Lightning cannot be obtained before 20 seconds have elapsed and cannot appear for 60 seconds after one has been obtained.

If items cannot be obtained according to these restrictions, the corresponding probability will be set to zero.

Single player races (ItemSlotTable)
The following are the single player item probabilities in the 2021 Autumn Tour.

Non-Frenzy (mProbTable)
The following tables are for situations where Frenzy mode is not activated. There are four tables divided into two groups, whose purpose is currently unknown, although it is expected that the first table contains the probability of the first opened Item Box, while the other tables contain the probability of the following Item Boxes.

Human Players
The item slots rolled by the players have three possible strengths, strength 2 is always used, while strength 1 is enabled with three items and strength 0 is enabled with three items. Each slot can only have a strength not shared with the other slots.

Frenzy (mFeverTableMaster)
The following tables list both the probability of obtaining a Frenzy as well as the probability of obtaining a specific type of Frenzy. The first table contains the probabilities of the first lap, and the second table those of the second lap. Since only two laps are coded, it is expected that the second section of three sectioned lap either uses the first lap or second lap data.