Mario Kart Tour item probability distributions

The following item probability distributions are used by Mario Kart Tour to determine the probability of obtaining a certain item when an Item Box is opened. Such a probability is coded as a percentage multiplied by two. Text directly derived from in-game data is reported in italics.

General rules
During races, the item probability distribution is chosen depending on the current position in the ranking at the moment the Item Box is opened.

Whether or not the Item Box will activate Frenzy mode will be determined first. If the player has Auto Item off, then it is not possible for them to activate Frenzy mode if a Spiny Shell, a Bullet Bill, Lightning, a Mega Mushroom, a Coin Box, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon or a Bob-omb Cannon are being hold.

The following restrictions hold for the non-Frenzy item distribitions:
 * The player can not hold three of the same items.
 * A Mega Mushroom, a Bullet Bill, a Super Horn, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon, a Coin Box and a Bob-omb Cannon can not appear if the player already holds one.
 * A Spiny Shell can not be obtained before 30 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained.
 * A Blooper can not appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained (this does not hold for Bloopers that are part of a Lucky Seven).
 * A Bullet Bill can not be obtained before 35 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 10 seconds after one has been obtained.
 * Lightning can not be obtained before 20 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 60 seconds after one has been obtained.

If items can not be obtained according to this restrictions, the corresponding percentages will be set to zero and the percentages of the other items will be scaled up such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.

Non-frenzy
The following tables are for situations where Frenzy mode is not activated. Boosted probabilities from gliders are not included. If the special item has a probability to be obtained, the percentages of the other items will be scaled down such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.

Frenzy
The following tables are for situations where Frenzy mode is activated. Boosted probabilities from driver skill levels or gliders are not included. If the special item has a probability to be obtained, the percentages of the other items will be scaled down such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.