Game Guy's Sweet Surprise

Game Guy's Sweet Surprise is a Game Guy minigame in Mario Party 3.

Gameplay
The player simply has to predict which Chain Chomp will finish eating its cake first. If the player correctly predicts that the Big Chomp will finish first, the player's coins are doubled. However, if the player correctly predicts that the Little Chomp will finish first, their coins are multiplied by an even greater number: either 4, 8, 16, 32, or 64. Before selecting a Chain Chomp, the player can read a description of the Chain Chomps' moods. If the player makes the wrong prediction, they lose all of their coins.

Mechanics
At the beginning of the minigame, the Big Chomp is always assigned a multiplier of 2×, while the Little Chomp is equally likely to be assigned a multiplier of 4×, 8×, 16×, 32×, or 64×. The probability that the Little Chomp finishes its cake first depends entirely on the multiplier assigned to it; the moods of each Chain Chomp do not affect their likelihood of winning.

At a fixed interval, one of the two Chain Chomps takes a bite of the cake. Below are the probabilities of either Chain Chomp taking a bite of their cake during an interval, based on the multiplier assigned to the Little Chomp:

During the same interval, the Chain Chomp that took a bite has a 40% chance to take a second bite. The first Chomp to take six or more bites wins.

This means that the overall probabilities that either Chain Chomp finishes its cake first are as follows, based on the multiplier assigned to the Little Chomp:

Expected value
Let B be the number of coins bet. The following table shows the EV for each multiplier assigned to the Little Chomp, as well as whether the player bets on the Big Chomp or the Little Chomp.

The player should always bet on the Little Chomp if it has a multiplier of 4×, as it has the same chance of winning as the Big Chomp, but double the expected value. However, by betting on the Big Chomp when the Little Chomp has a multiplier of 64×, the player is nearly guaranteed to double their coins.

Controls

 * or – Choose Chain Chomp
 * – Select Chain Chomp

In-game text

 * Game Guy – "The Big Chomp and the Little Chomp will have a cake-eating race. Predict which one will be the quicker cake eater. If you guess right, you'll get more coins. But, if you guess wrong, your coins will be mine."