Mario Kart 8 item probability distributions

The following distributions are used by version 4.1 of Mario Kart 8 to determine the probability of obtaining a certain item when an Item Box is opened. . Such a probability is coded as a percentage multiplied by two.

Title screen (ST)
These item probability distributions are used in the demonstration of the gameplay that are shown in the title screen. Although 20 sets are defined for them, only the second, third and fourth actually contain at least some probability values different from 0.

Races (S2)
During races, each probability distribution is chosen depending on the distance from the frontrunner in the moment the Item Box was opened. The distance reported is the one at which the switch to the next distribution happens.

Versus races feature five additional distributions sets whose distributions are all made to obtain a specific item and whose purpose is unclear. Most of them are reported without the distance as it is not determined whether they are used by drivers controlled by players or by the software.

Unknown purpose (S3)
The purpose of this set of five distributions is currently not known.

Battle Mode (S4)
In Battle Mode, the probability depends both on the time and on the number of balloons left.

Just like with Versus Races, there are additional distributions sets whose purpose is unclear.